The NAO index and the long-term variability of Nephrops norvegicus population and fishery offWest of Ireland (Fisheries Research)

González Herraiz, I., M.A. Torres, A.C. Fariña, J. Freire & J.R. Cancelo (2009). The NAO index and the long-term variability of Nephrops norvegicus population and fishery offWest of Ireland. Fisheries Research 98:1–7
Nephrops landings from Spanish trawlers in Porcupine bank (West of Ireland) have decreased a 90% in the last 25 years. With the aim of studying the causes of this situation, the relation between CPUE (1979–2005) and several environmental and population factors is investigated through a monthly time series approach. Discards in the fishery are negligible. As LPUE time series exhibits a seasonal pattern, a seasonal decomposition of the CPUE is carried out showing a decreasing trend from 1982 to 2003. The LPUE series is modelized resulting in an autoregressive and moving average model (ARMA) that highlights a monthly positive and seasonal negative autodependence. Population and environmental parameters (i.e. recruits per unit effort “RPUE”, sex ratio, ovigerous females’ proportion, North Atlantic Oscillation index “NAO” and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index “AMO”) were tested at different lags as independent variables of the ARMA model. The outcoming multivariated dynamic ARMA model states that CPUE is positively related to sex ratio lagged by 8 years and negatively related to the NAO index from 6.5 years before. In accordance with those results 1978, 1983, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1995 and 1996 Porcupine Bank stormy, warm and wet conditions would be linked to the 1984, 1989, 1993, 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2003 Nephrops CPUE low values. Those results show an expectable model in relation to Nephrops density in which environmental conditions would have a relevant role.

2nd GAP1 Workshop

2nd GAP1 Workshop

From the 5th to the 7th of May, some group members attended the “2nd GAP1 Workshop” that took place in the city of Norwich (United Kingdom).

The purpose of the workshop was to share and take forward the experience of developing participatory research case-studies during GAP1. To use the links between case-studies in developing the rationale, concepts and technical outline for a research proposal, aiming to combine and make useful the knowledge of fishermen and scientists.

During the workshop, case studies were revised, focusing on the challenges encountered and possible solutions to be applied.

Outcomes of the steering committee held on Friday 8th May, will be available on the GAP1 website soon.

Praias de Galicia2

Hai aproximadamente un mes que colgamos da página de descargas a capa de Praias de Galicia para Google Earth, realizada coa información da páxina do Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. Gracias a vosa colaboración poidemos detectar erros que foron corrixidos e a partir de hoxe tedes a nova capa. Houbo ademais algúns problemas de visualización con algunhas versións de Google Earth (coas versións 4.2 e 4.3 funciona correctamente).

Tedes dispoñible tamén, para aqueles que non queiran poñer o bañador, unha capa coas praias nudistas “recoñecidas” en Galicia

¡Disfrutádeas!

Sobre las tendencias temporales en las abundancias y tamaño corporal de peces costeros: II International Symposium in Marine Science, Vigo-Spain. 27-30 April 2009.

Entre el 27 y el 30 de abril ha tenido lugar en Vigo, el II Simposio Internacional de Ciencias Marinas organizado por la Facultade de Ciencias do Mar de la Universidade de Vigo.

El mismo día de la clausura presenté una comunicación oral (cuya presentación puede visualizarse a continuación) acerca de las tendencias a largo plazo en las abundancias y tamaño corporal de las comunidades de peces costeros gallegos. Nuestra intención (de Juan Freire, coautor y la mía propia) es aportar datos que permitan recuperar la perdida línea de referencia original (acerca de las biomasas de los océanos pre-pesquerías industriales).

View more presentations from ppita.

GAP1 Newsletter March-April 2009

Se ha publicado el boletín de noticias del proyecto europeo GAP1: Bridging the gap between science and stakeholders correspondiente a los meses de Marzo y Abril del 2009.

Se puede descargar la versión íntegra en pdf aquí, o consultar en html aquí.

GAP1 Newsletter March-April 2009

gap

Conservation and management issues related to FADs utilized by the European tropical tuna fishery – Interview with Laurent Dagorn of IRD, France
Landing a common goal on a research question can be quite a challenge, even if the group has a long history of collaboration. In the process of defining the correct research questions the FAD/Tuna Case study group has made large efforts to overarch the gaps of knowledge and understanding between stakeholders in their group. The group consists of researchers from French IRD (L’Institut de recherche pour le développement) and Spanish AZTI (Fundación AZTI), ship owners and skippers of Tuna fishery vessels sailing the Indian Ocean. The ship owners are of both French and Spanish nationality and have previous experience of collaboration through the tuna commission (IOTC), since in tuna stock areas of the in Indian Ocean, Spanish and French fleet
owners are usually working together.

Now, after several GAP1 Regional meetings, the group is harmonized on their subject and ready to provide a scientific proposal.
Collaborative research
The first Regional meeting took place in May 2008, where the FAD/tuna Case study group identified general questions to be more studied. The second meeting was held in Dec 2008, main topics were then definitely defined with fleet owners, but to get more precise questions it was decided to get the point of view of skippers as well. The species concerned in the study were Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis), Bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) and Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) tuna.
After the second meeting Dr Laurent Dagorn, GAP1 coordinating scientist at IRD, Seychelles was happy to report:

“We’re really going forward in this very interesting exercise. We agreed upon a common and restricted objective, but we need to get the points of view from some skippers to be sure we have a full coverage of all stakeholders. Then, we’ll finalize specific objectives, methods, etc. in order to prepare a proposal to be ready by late March 2009.”

SOS for EU fishing – save our stocks, Commission calls for help with reforming EU fishing
On April 22 2009 EU Reform of the Common Fisheries Policy was released on the European Commission News Website:

“… the EU will need a sea change in policy. The report is the first step towards what is hoped will be a radically different approach. In the months ahead, the commission will be soliciting advice from all those who care about the industry to forge a new plan.”

“We are not looking for just another reform,” maritime commissioner Joe Borg says. “We are asking questions even on the fundamentals of the current policy and should leave no stone unturned.”
“Normally the current policy – last overhauled in 2002 – would not be up for review until 2012. But the situation has become too precarious to wait that long. Already 88% of European fish stocks are overfished, compared with only 25% worldwide. Almost one in three fish can’t reproduce normally because the parent population is too depleted. In the North Sea, for example, 90% of cod are caught before they can spawn.”

Read more:
http://ec.europa.eu/news/agriculture/090423_1_en.htm
Green paper:
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2009:0163:FIN:EN:PDF
Citizen Summary:
http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/reform/docs/citizenssummary_en.pdf

Meetings
5th February 2009, ‘Engaging Stakeholders in Fisheries and Marine Research’

“There was great support for more effectively engaging stakeholders in European research and all the participants learned a lot about the opportunities and barriers in making this a reality” (Steve Mackinson GAP1 Project coordinator)

GAP1 representatives met in Brussels to discuss with the European Commission and stakeholder representatives. Participants shared their experiences and views on two main topics:

(i) How a deeper and more systematic engagement of civil society stakeholders can be enabled through European research activities.
(ii)  Funding strategies and instruments needed to enable participation in research

The full report with related documents is now available at: http://www.gap1.eu/Results/Reports.htm

New Results
GAP1 Progress Summary

Currently 11 proposals are submitted to our project steering committee. Proposals will be reviewed and discussed during GAP1 Workshop 2 in Norwich May 5th-8 2009.

Eleven GAP1 Case study groups are now approaching the stage of delivering scientific proposals for improved fisheries management in European fisheries. The facilitation of this development was made possible through the regional meetings of the GAP1 project, financed by the European Commission in the 7th Framework Programme. The meetings provided time for a deeper understanding of the different points of views in each group, followed up on progress in discussions and pursued development of proposals. In the process the variety of stakeholder representatives, ranging from social scientists to
industrial ship owners were allowed to flavor the development of research subjects, each with their special interest in fishery and fisheries management. The various interests were then harmonized into specific research questions and developed into research proposals accepted by all participants of each case study. Stakeholder groups were highly appreciative of the facilitation of their work.
A summary of the progress of case studies can be reviewed here: http://www.gap1.eu/Results/Reports.htm

Planned GAP1 events

GAP1 Workshop 2 Norwich, UK,  May 5th-8 2009
The purpose of the GAP1 workshop is to share and take forward the
experience of developing participatory research case-studies during
GAP1. The expected outcomes of the workshop are:

  1. A Code of Conduct for initiating cooperative research involving fisheries stakeholders and scientists.
  2. Plans for implementing cooperative research projects developed during the GAP project.

Agenda and more information
http://www.gap1.eu/Workpackages/Workshop2.htm
Good practice guide to participatory research between fisheries
stakeholders and scientists:
http://www.gap1.eu/Downloads/D1._GAP_Good_Practice_Guide.pdf
Good Practice Guide – Brochure:
http://www.gap1.eu/Downloads/good_brochure_web.pdf
Case study progress summary
http://www.gap1.eu/Downloads/Progress_summaryApril09.pdf
Portfolio of case studies for participatory research
http://www.gap1.eu/Results/Results.htm

July 9-11 2009 – MARE: People and the Sea V, Amsterdam.

This is an important conference for GAP1 dissemination to the scientific community since it will include a GAP1 exhibition.
Conference themes:

  1. Transformations in fisheries and aquaculture
  2. Transformations in coastal and deltaic landscapes
  3. Governing under conditions of uncertainty
  4. Culture and imaginations of coasts under change
  5. Whose needs count in adapting to change?

http://www.marecentre.nl/people_and_the_sea_5/index.html

Wishing all readers a happy beginning of May!

Contacts
Steve Mackinson Project Coordinator: steve.mackinson@cefas.co.uk
Charlotta Järnmark Communications officer: cjarnmark@gmail.com

Los peligros de los modelos

peligros_modelos

Fuente: Fundamentals of physical geography. David John Briggs y Peter Smithson. (1986).

Alejandro Polanco en La Cartoteca nos alerta de los peligros que tiene el aumentar la complejidad de los modelos:

La realidad puede ser sencilla, o la podemos complicar todo cuanto queramos. Modelos matemáticos, climáticos y geográficos, teoría de sistemas… se empieza por algo simple, pero la cosa suele terminar como en esta genial viñeta.

Una buena alerta para aquellos inmersos en la construcción de modelos que siempre pretendemos que expliquen de la mejor forma posible la realidad … un objetivo que nunca alcanzamos. Quiás esta viñeta sea la mejor justificación del principio de parsimonia o del criterio de información de Akaike. Buen tema para un futuro taller del grupo …

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